Israel’s political landscape continues to face potential instability, as a new poll suggests that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the main Zionist opposition would secure a parliamentary majority if elections were held today. This scenario could result in another political stalemate, leaving parties scrambling to form a viable coalition government.
The survey indicates Netanyahu’s political alliance would capture 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the main Zionist opposition bloc would gain 55 seats. Both fall short of the 61-seat threshold needed to control the parliament, increasing the significance of the two Arab-majority parties projected to win a combined 14 seats. These parties might play a crucial role in coalition negotiations.
Leading the poll is former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which is projected to become the largest party with 24 seats. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad would secure 14 seats, Yisrael Beytenu nine, and the Democrats eight, indicating a fragmented political environment.
Within Netanyahu’s camp, the Likud party is predicted to win 22 seats. Shas would follow with 10, United Torah Judaism with nine, Otzma Yehudit with seven, and Religious Zionism with four. Other parties like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel, HaMiluimnikim, and Blue and White failed to reach the 3.25% electoral threshold needed to enter the Knesset.
If the election does not yield a clear winner, public opinion is divided on the next steps. About 31.4% of respondents favor another election, while 29.6% prefer forming a unity government, and 27% support a minority government. Among Netanyahu’s supporters, 45.02% lean towards a unity government. Meanwhile, the opposition shows the highest support for a minority government at 39.79%.
The poll, which surveyed 500 respondents and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, underscores the uncertainty and challenges facing Israeli politics ahead of the upcoming October 27 election. The findings suggest a complicated path to governance, with potential prolonged negotiations and political maneuvering on the horizon.