Mayor Andy Burnham’s continued public refusal to rule out a leadership bid has implicitly elevated the political stakes for other potential rivals, particularly former Deputy Leader Angela Rayner, who now faces the prospect of being a ‘kingmaker’ rather than a challenger. The internal dynamic has shifted dramatically in Burnham’s favour.
The current instability is entirely driven by Burnham’s strategic ambiguity, which has forced the entire party to focus on his next move. The looming threat of his return has constrained other figures, including Rayner, who must now calculate whether a challenge alongside Burnham is feasible or if they must simply endorse him.
Starmer, speaking while heading to the G20 summit, focused on uniting all potential factions by praising Burnham’s successful collaboration with the central government. He pointed to the “really impressive” response to the Manchester synagogue attack as a model for how key party figures can work together.
The Prime Minister attempted to limit the sphere of internal plotting, forcefully dismissing claims of a coup involving Health Secretary Wes Streeting. Starmer’s concern is that the combined maneuvering of figures like Streeting and Burnham will only increase the pressure on him ahead of crucial upcoming events.
Meanwhile, Burnham is consolidating his position with his £1 billion Manchester growth plan. By presenting himself as the most viable alternative outside of Westminster’s inner circle, he ensures that the next move in the succession debate will likely involve the public positioning of a kingmaker.
The Kingmaker Scenario: Burnham’s Ambition Forces Rayner into Strategic Silence
